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The adage “as you sow, so shall you reap” seems to be one of the better problems against Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) appropriate now.

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The bike maker rode a beachcomber of sales college on a anxiously crafted angel of the outlaw biker that it awash to its amount chump of middle-aged males who would band on covering jackets, boots, and a academician brazier for a actualization of rebelliousness.

View photos

Man in covering anorak and sunglasses beefcake on a helmet

Image source: Getty Images.

When times were good, the affiliation formed and shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles surged to a aiguille of 349,000 bikes in 2006, a 70% access from aloof six years earlier. But these weekend warriors got annoyed out in the collapse of the banking market, and they chock-full affairs Harley’s big, big-ticket bikes.

Shipments of motorcycles fell to 210,500 by 2010, and while the bike maker clawed its way aback to about 271,000 motorcycles alien four years later, Harley has been on a bottomward abruptness anytime since, and aftermost year it alone alien 241,500 bikes to dealer. Administration forecasts that at best alone 236,000 bikes will get out the aperture in 2018.

The botheration is today’s new crop of bike client isn’t absorbed in the motorcycle assemblage persona or in advantageous a exceptional for a ample bike. They are axis their aback on the brand, which is why U.S. sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles fell 8% aftermost year and are bottomward 13.5% over the accomplished three years. Globally, they’re bottomward 6% and 10%, respectively.

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Chart of Harley-Davidson annual U.S. sales growth

Data source: Harley-Davidson annual SEC filings. Chart by author.

It’s not assertive Harley-Davidson has an compassionate of what the botheration is. Although it gives the actualization of acclamation the affair by committing to accompany in 2 actor riders to the cast over the abutting 10 years during which time it will acquaint 100 new models, action training to new riders, and advance the abstraction of chance travel, it’s not absolutely against the amount botheration that its bikes don’t address to the new demographic of young, urban, and changeable riders to whom actuality a insubordinate addition is not a priority.

Moreover, the motorcycles it’s authoritative are still appealing abundant a aberration on a theme. They’re still big, still heavy, and still loud, admitting that’s absolutely an aftermarket feature. The actuality is that delineation of Harley-Davidson motorcycles and the outlaw angel abounding of its riders accept accepted may be too acutely built-in to change. 

Story Continues

Because its amount chump is crumbling out and the new cast of addition is not interested, Harley may be bent in a amphitheater it can’t escape.

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The absurdity is that battling Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII) doesn’t accept the aforementioned problem. Although its Indian Motorcycle cast additionally offers a ample alternative of ample bikes, sales abide to be brisk.

Sales surged 17% in the fourth quarter, and in the words of Chairman and CEO Scott Wine, the cast “massively outperformed” the industry for all of 2017 and acquired cogent bazaar share.

The aberration may be Indian motorcycles don’t backpack that aforementioned stigma. Also, some of its best accepted bikes accept been its midsize motorcycles, like the Scout and Scout Sixty.

To change direction, Harley-Davidson needs an acute makeover. Rather than authoritative these ample adamant horses, it needs to aftermath smaller, lighter-weight, and cheaper bikes. It additionally needs to breed adolescent riders. Not aloof the millennials, but kids aloof accepting their aboriginal aftertaste of benumbed on off-road tracks. That’s back abounding bodies advance their adulation of motorcycles, and authoritative them accessible in its showrooms could go a continued way against creating a chump for life.

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Line of motorcycles anchored on a paved surface.

Image source: Getty Images.

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While it seems to be giving a nod to this new addition by developing an electric motorcycle, this seems added of a vanity activity for Harley rather than responding to an burning charge in the marketplace. Not alike carmakers accept ample out how to accomplish a accumulation with electric cartage yet. It’s one acumen Polaris isn’t affective advanced yet with one, admitting accepting the ability accessible with its Brammo division. CEO Wine says actualization him how to accomplish money with an e-bike, “and we will be all in.”

To change Harley will apparently crave a change at the top. Existing administration seems too vested in its accepted priorities to seek out a altered path, and with a lath of admiral that has little to no ability of the industry, Harley cannot finer claiming the cachet quo.

And frankly, all the change may not work. Absolutely reinventing itself is no accessible task, and Harley risks alienating its amount buyer, alike if they are affairs beneath bikes, while not actuality believable to the new crop of buyers.

The cachet quo has led Harley-Davidson to lose added than 20% of its amount over the aftermost three years, a aeon of time back the S&P 500 has acquired about 30%. While its banal trades at decidedly discounted ethics beyond abundant metrics, there’s no acumen it can’t go lower still if it doesn’t change administration or its image.

While it ability not be a botheration absolutely of its own making, it is one that it has accomplished over the years. But actuality a insubordinate is no best confined it or investors well.

More From The Motley Fool

Rich Duprey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Polaris Industries. The Motley Fool has a acknowledgment policy.

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